Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
